Uncle Hyena (unclehyena) wrote,
Uncle Hyena
unclehyena

Trollhalla Math

Since the majority of the denizens of Trollhalla don't care at all about this kind of thing, I am stashing it here. Feel free to leave and anonymous comment, but SIGN it with a name I will recognize, please.

Getting 12 or better on 3D6 TARO:

81 naturaral rolls, plus three special cases: 3x3, 3x2, and 3x1.

3x3 automatically results in a total of 12+: +1
3x2 will give a result 12+ except when followed by 4 (3/216) or 5 (6/216): +207/216
3x1 will give a result of 12+ except when followed by 3 (1/5184 chance of NOT getting 12+, so zero), ( 4 (3/216), 5 (6/216), 6 (9/216 (the TARO result goes over 12+)), 7 (10/216), or 8 (15/216): +173/216

Actual chance of rolling 12+: 83 164/216 out of 216=83.759/216=.388

12+, 8/8 =1/1956
12+ 7/7= 1/758.6
12+, 6/6=1/294.1

11-, 1/1=1/1.634
11-, 2/2=1/2.670

So...

8 out of 8 case, 1/1956=.0005112
EXACTLY 7 out of 8 case, 1/(758.6*1.634/7)=1/177.1=.005647
EXACTLY 6 out of 8 case, 1/(294.1*2.67/28)=1/28.04=.03566

Sum: .04182, or 1/23.91
Subscribe
  • Post a new comment

    Error

    default userpic
    When you submit the form an invisible reCAPTCHA check will be performed.
    You must follow the Privacy Policy and Google Terms of use.
  • 0 comments